"LOW END SEVERE WEATHER RISK"
Once again changes are on the way to the forecast as we enter the middle of the workweek. Our somewhat dry Monday will come to an end as showers and storms work back through the area.
A warm frontal boundary draped to our north and an area of low pressure to our west with a cold front will contribute to a low end risk for severe weather Wednesday evening.
For that reason the Storm Prediction Center has placed the parts of area under a "Slight Risk" which simply means that we could have a few storms reach severe limits. On a scale of 1 to 5 we are running about a 1 for severe activity here in central Maryland and a 2 in western Maryland. This will not be a widespread event as storm coverage looks to be scattered through the evening hours and mainly confined west of the city (Carroll, Frederick, Howard & Washington Counties).
TIMING & THREATS
Storms look to bubble around mid to late afternoon and continue into the early evening hours. The best window to plan around would be 4-9pm for showers and storms especially west of Baltimore.
Gusty winds and flash flooding are the biggest threats overall but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Winds at the surface will be coming in from the south, while the wind higher up comes in from the west. This leads to some extra lift and convergence in the atmosphere above precluding a damaging wind threat across portions of the area. The best chance for this to happen looks to be over Western MD mountains and up to the north across the PA/MD state line.
Rainfall amounts will be upwards of 1-2" in many locations through Friday. Higher amounts of 2-4"+ are expected west of the area over the mountains where Flash Flood Watches are now in place through Thursday evening.
Storms look to be at there highest coverage during the afternoon and evening hours each day with less coverage as the pattern tries to break into the weekend ahead.
The time is now to remember your weather action plan. Know your safe spot to go and remember when a warning is issued to take immediate action. Make sure you have a way to get weather information, should any alerts be issued. Our WMAR2News app is free for download from the Apple/GooglePlay store. If you can't get alerts by phone be sure to stay with us throughout the day on Facebook and Twitter for the latest updates as storms approach this evening.