Will we see nor'easter #4 or will it be like every other storm this year that just grazes the area. The storm system is slowly beginning to come together over the central and southern Plains as of this St. Patrick's Day afternoon. From there the storm will gather moisture from the Gulf of Mexico creating severe weather in Mid-South come Sunday while we deal with sunshine. The first signs of the of storm around here won't be felt until late Monday as the precipitation moves in from the south.
This nor'easter will not be like the last 3 especially since it's arrival is on the first day of Spring. It's a complex storm system with two parts which looks to be providing some trouble for the models in figuring out the correct solution. Most of the precipitation will be on Tuesday in the form of rain, snow sleet, and even freezing. Intensity and precipitation will be dependent on the placement of the low. Models right now continue to hint at the midday and late evening hours of Tuesday for the heavier activity although confidence at his point is still very low. There is some risk of accumulating snow especially on the colder surfaces such as grass, trees, bridges, patios, & etc... should we see cold enough conditions lining up with the heaviest bands of precipitation. Temperatures though remain in limbo especially with the high sun angle of March which leads to considerable question on a best/worst case scenario. Highs continue to sit at 40 degrees Tuesday before falling into the 20s and 30s come Wednesday morning as the storm wraps up the coast.
Remember how we said the storm is complex well the next piece to this puzzle comes Wednesday with a quick moving parent are of low pressure which could drop another light round of wintry precipitation. This may be of more importance since temperatures at this point will be crashing into the 30s which could equal at least some minor travel problems. Once again confidence remains low as models continue to flip flop on solutions.
Overall we do know that there will be a storm between Monday night and late Wednesday afternoon. Snow, rain, and sleet will be the primary precipitation type with temperatures in the 30s and 40s. Accumulating snow is also likely although amounts are still uncertain based on track and intensity. We also know that anything that falls will have some trouble initially sticking since it's late March and the ground is a lot warmer this time of year especially with highs on both Sunday and Monday in the 50s. So stay tuned as Spring comes in like a lion instead of a lamb.