Winter Weather Advisories are now in place for portions of the area as clouds are on the increase across the area and moisture builds from our quick moving winter storm. Temperatures in most locations are above freezing so many of us may actually begin as a wintry mix or even just plain rain. Temperatures do look to cool as the day goes on creating that window of opportunity for accumulating snow.
The mixed bag of precipitation starts to move into the area after 3pm this afternoon and turns heavy between 5-8pm. This 3 hour window will be the best chance for accumulating snow in most locations. Most locations will start as a ycy mix/snow as the system continues to track to the northeast. Precipitation will eventually transition to all snow north and west of Baltimore after 5pm thanks to evaporative cooling while remaining a mix to rain on the Eastern Shore.
Areas along the Allegheny Front have the best chance of seeing a quick glaze of ice combined with higher snowfall totals. With road temperatures well above freezing given the recent warm spell, ice should have a difficult time accumulating, though some slick roads are possible especially north and west of the city. Temperatures though will be the biggest factor here in determining the precipitation type. Most of us will see readings steady in the 30s while others to our east touch 40 degrees. As the system departs warmer air will likely filter in off the Atlantic creating the change to rain from I-95 points east.
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The mountains of Maryland and along the PA/MD State Line will see the best chance of accumulating snow, especially Carroll, Frederick, western Howard, northern Baltimore, and northern Harford Counties. These areas could see anywhere from 1-3" of snow with localized pockets of 4" west of Frederick toward South Mountain.
Around Baltimore and I-95 we could see a quick thump of 1-2" with a little more as you head out toward Towson, Catonsville, White Marsh, and Bel Air. Annapolis over to Chestertown and Cecilton likely to see a quick dusting or nothing at all as more rain mixes in.
The highest elevations of Allegany and Garrett counties will see the best chance of accumulating snow, especially along I-68. These areas could see anywhere from 4-8" of snow.
The forecast remains wet and very warm, with a spring-like pattern. Highs expected to be near record levels by the middle of the workweek in the low to mid 70s and maybe even pushing toward 80 degrees across the Southern Shore.