Over the last couple of hours, we have seen a defined center of circulation develop in this area of low pressure that is just to the east of the Leeward Islands. In addition, deep convection has continued to consolidate and if these trends continue the system will likely become a tropical depression or storm tonight or Tuesday when it moves near the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean.
Data indicated the system will continue moving west northwestward over the next couple of days -- becoming a tropical storm within the next 24 hours. Tropical storm conditions will be likely tonight in portions of the southern Leeward Islands. Tropical storm impacts will move towards Puerto Rico early Wednesday morning as it aims for the Gulf of Mexico.
We have had 5 named storms so far this season -- so Fred is next when the system gets it's act together.