The Simmering Tropics...

Development expected this week....
Posted at 6:26 PM, Aug 17, 2020
and last updated 2020-08-17 18:26:05-04

The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been on fire!

Still about 3 weeks away from the peak of hurricane season--we are already halfway through the name list. If we exhaust the 2020 name list, we go the Greek alphabet-- 24 more names to work with, from Alpha to Omega. That is a real possibility this year considering last week, Tropical Storms Josephine & Kyle became the earliest tenth and 11th named storms on record in the Atlantic Basin.

And the environment only gets more favorable as we head into September--
Sea surface temperatures...which are already above average....are at their warmest heading into September.
Wind shear typically is at its lowest in September... (wind shear is essentially winds (in the upper levels) blowing in opposite direction the system is moving)


Over the next 5 days, both of the systems circled above has a solid chance of developing...

The closest system to the Caribbean is moving at 20mph...and despite having a lot of deep tropical convection... it isn't organized and doesn't have a center of circulation-- so it has a slightly lower chance of developing than the system closer to the coast of Africa.