Once again it's another February weekend with wild weather ahead. Two word that come to mind would be "Weather Whiplash." We have heavy rain, high winds, and mild temperatures on the way to finish out the weekend as the battle of air-masses takes hold.
TIMING
Rain continues to slowly move in overnight and picks up in intensity early Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts will be on the order of 0.5"-1.5" through Sunday midday before things taper quickly as drier air moves in. Winds don't start to crank around here until late Sunday morning with highest gusts expected late in the afternoon and into Monday morning before the storm system departs.
TEMPERATURES
We are expecting an all rain event from now through Sunday. Temperatures tonight will remain in the upper 30s and lower 40s as a wedge of cold air stays stuck against the Blue Ridge Mountains. The wedge of cold air will eventually erode out as our warm front heads north overnight and rain moves through.
With the rain stopping midday Sunday and the potential for a few breaks of sunshine temperatures look to punch 60 degrees. It won't last long though as gusty west northwesterly breezes drag in drier and colder air late Sunday and Monday with lows falling back to around 32 degrees. Highs Monday through Wednesday of next week will be at seasonable levels in the 30s and 40s with lows in the 20s and 30s.
WIND
A "High Wind Warning" is in place from 1pm Sunday through 10am Monday for Frederick, Washington, Allegany, and Garrett Counties. Winds are likely to gusts 50-60 mph with localized gusts 60 mph+ above elevations of 1,500-2,000ft.
A "High Wind Watch" is in place from 2pm Sunday to 6pm Monday for Cecil, Caroline, Kent, Talbot, and Queen Anne's Counties. Winds are likely to gusts 50-60 mph creating power outage and downed tree concerns.
A "Wind Advisory" is in place from 3pm Sunday through 10pm Monday for all of Central Maryland including Baltimore and Annapolis. Winds are likely to gusts 40-50 mph creating power and tree issues.
Model consensus continues to agree on these strong winds impacting the area as low pressure takes off toward our west over Michigan. The tight pressure gradient between the low and high pressure off of coastal New England are to blame.
LOCALIZED FLOODING
We should not see a widespread flooding event across the area due to the recent dry spell and influx of moisture staying just to our south. Either way with a 0.5"-1.5" of rain coming on top of somewhat frozen and saturated ground below we look o see some problems. Remember if you see high water "Turn Around Don't Drown."
LOOKING AHEAD
Luckily for us this storm system is a quick mover and should clear the area late Sunday into Monday. Our biggest issue will be the WIND during that time frame before the chillier air arrives. Looking long range the last few days of February remain quiet before March roars in like a lion with a wintry mix next weekend. Stay tuned!!
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