Today is expected to be very active. Severe weather window: 1-9 PM. The Storm Prediction Center has bumped up the severe weather risk to a level 3/5 (Enhanced Risk). This outlook is not very common in the Mid-Atlantic region. The last time the Baltimore metro was under an Enhanced Risk was on July 3, 2023. This means that there is a synoptic setup where multiple storms could be more persistent/longer-lasting, especially near/along I-95 as they interact with the bay breeze. The high heat and humidity will add fuel to the fire and the potent cold front will be a strong trigger mechanism for the storms. Areas in orange have a higher chance of seeing a few tornadoes, significant wind damage, and large hail occurrences between 1" (quarter-sized) - 2" (size of a lime) in diameter.
The map below shows CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), which shows the amount of energy available in the atmosphere that can help ignite thunderstorms. The bright green and yellow colors on the map below indicate higher levels of storm fuel and a lot of instability that will be present in the atmosphere when storms begin to bubble up.
The amount of storm fuel will begin to diminish towards sunset as temperatures drop and humidity drop.
Make sure you have a way to receive weather alerts if a watch or a warning gets issued for your area!
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