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Tracking Possible Tropical Development

Late Week/Weekend Outlook
Posted at 7:44 PM, Jul 08, 2020
and last updated 2020-07-08 19:44:04-04

I know many folks plan to start their weekend early by heading to the beach in order to beat the heat. Make sure you pack the rain gear before you go!

A disturbance is located off the coast of the Carolinas and is currently bringing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and a disorganized batch of thunderstorms to eastern North Carolina. It is likely that this system will take on tropical characteristics as it tracks northeastward over warm waters. There is a 70% chance that this low pressure system will develop into a tropical cyclone (Fay) within the next day or so.

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There is still some uncertainty that lies with the exact track of this storm system. Latest models indicate the system will advance northeastward Thursday night into early Friday along the coastal Mid-Atlantic region. The bulk of the deeper moisture appears to stay off to our east but periods of heavy rain may lead to flooding concerns along the Delmarva Peninsula.

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As the area of low pressure tracks up the east coast Friday evening, a cold front will move eastward from the west. As of right now, this frontal boundary will arrive Saturday and may produce heavy rain and a few strong thunderstorms. The front looks to be out of our hair by Sunday morning. High pressure builds into the region Monday and Tuesday but there are signs of a boundary stalling out out the SE of Maryland. This will keep the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the beginning of next week.

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