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Tracking Elsa

Tropical moisture may reach Maryland...
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Posted at 10:23 AM, Jul 07, 2021

All eyes are on the tropics as Elsa is nearing landfall along the northwestern Florida Gulf coast. Tropical Storm Elsa currently has sustained winds of 65 mph and is traveling northward at 14 mph.

Hurricane Warnings and Tropical Storm Warnings are underway for the west coast of the state. There are multiple Flood Warnings in effect as Elsa continues to dump torrential rainfall along the coast. Life-threatening storm surge is a major threat today for the west coast so Storm Surge Warnings are also in effect.

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The latest track from the National Hurricane Center shows Elsa moving over the southeastern portion of the country through Thursday where weakening will take place. This system will then move northeastward through the Carolinas, into central Virginia, and will eventually near the Delmarva peninsula Thursday night-Friday morning. The European computer model and the GFS (American) model run are not in total agreement with the exact placement of the heavier rainfall. The Euro model shows the center of Elsa moving over southern Delmarva early Friday morning, whereas the GFS model places the center of the deep moisture farther eastward off the coast. The farther inland (closer to Baltimore) Elsa is, means there will be a better chance to see stronger storms, some brief tornadoes, and a greater flooding potential. The flooding concern will not be as pronounced if the center of the system moves farther eastward out to sea. As of right now, rainfall totals could range between 1-3" with higher amounts confined to Delmarva.

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Winds will be picking up throughout the day Thursday and we could see gusts as high as 40 mph across areas south and east of the Bay. Winds will be the strongest Thursday night-Friday morning. Model guidance is showing the wind gusts up to 70+ mph along the coast!

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Maryland's Most Accurate Weather Team will continue to bring you the latest updates on Elsa!

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