From one severe storm threat to another just in time for one of the busiest times of the year. Yes the weekend may be nice right now but a strong storm system looks to develop just in time for Election Day this coming week.
The storm systems looks to strike the Mid-South and Tennessee River Valley first, giving them numerous severe storms Monday. Right now a "LEVEL 3 ENHANCED RISK" for severe weather is in place for all hazards such as damaging winds, tornadoes, hail, and flash flooding.
Meanwhile here in Baltimore we will see pockets of light to moderate rain Monday with highs near 60 degrees. Tuesday is when we start to see our change to a more volatile weather setup.
Low pressure will be just to our west in the Ohio River Valley. At the same time a cold front will be pushing in from the same direction while a warm front surges in from the south. This warm front will put us underneath a warm and humid airmass which of course is fuel for storms. The front will also act as a lifting mechanism to get storm activity to pop.
The Storm Prediction Center doesn't issue specific thunderstorm outlooks like you see above, for forecasts 4+ days out. Instead, they've highlighted a large portion of the east coast in an area where severe storms will be possible "Election Tuesday". Sunday's forecast models should give us a better clue to what kind of outlook we may be in for severe weather early next week.
Of course the threat could go one of two ways. Let's start with the bad before the good.
Our worse case would be a severe weather outbreak with all hazards on the table including the threat for tornadoes. The problem with having a front overhead or nearby is that it adds some extra spin in the atmosphere above as the cold and warm air clash. The clash of the air-masses plus fast winds aloft lead to the perfect ingredients for storm development. Timing will also be important here as most model runs paint this as an afternoon and evening event.
The best case scenario would be increased cloud coverage and showers out ahead of the boundary that could stabilize the atmosphere. You combine this with an evening and overnight timing to limit the threat of storm development.
The WMAR2News Weather team will continue to monitor this threat closely, as it could impact your trip to the polls. Remember we have 2 days for this forecast to change and should have a better understanding of the threat by then. Keep checking back for update on the air, online, and on our social media pages.