Well... here we go again! High pressure moves off to our northeast and low pressure from the deep south develops into the Mid-Atlantic region overnight from southwest to northeast.
Winter Storm Warnings will go into effect at 3 AM Thursday - 6 AM Friday for the majority of the viewing area as heavy accumulating snow looks more promising during the morning drive Thursday.
Snow will move into the region shortly after midnight and cold air will be locked in place... this will be the perfect set up for significant accumulating snowfall through Thursday morning, especially to the north and west of the metro. The snow begins around 2 AM- 5 AM and will linger into the late morning hours before decreasing in intensity around noon. It will be a very messy morning drive. The forecast becomes rather tricky heading into midday-afternoon as temperatures aloft warm slightly above freezing along I-95 and southward.
There may be a brief lull in the forecast around midday but that does not mean that we are out of the woods just yet. As temperatures upstairs in the atmosphere climb above 32°, that will leave a greater chance for melting/mixing to take place. So, freezing rain, sleet, and plain rain appear to set up mainly to the south and east of I-95 during the late-afternoon/evening hours. Those areas have a better chance of dealing with more significant ice accumulation, therefore leading to hazardous/slippery road conditions during the evening commute.
With the chance of an icy mix late in the day around the city and southeastward, snowfall totals will not be as high compared to our northwest suburbs. Heavier banding of snow looks to set up around northern Carroll and Baltimore counties for a longer duration, so they are in the 5-8" range. Folks around the city, down to Columbia, and over towards Cecil county may see 2-5", and a trace-1" around Annapolis and southern portions of the Eastern Shore can be expected.