Hurricane Ian intensified into a major category 3 hurricane this morning and it is moving over western Cuba right now. Pressure is dropping (952 mb) and maximum sustained winds are increasing. Right now, Ian has sustained winds of 125 mph and is moving northward at 12 mph. It will move into the SE Gulf of Mexico later this morning and could become a category 4 hurricane later today.
Ian is expected to make landfall near Tampa Bay late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning, possibly as a major category 3 hurricane. Weakening will take place Thursday afternoon into Friday as the system travels over land. Hurricane Warnings and Tropical Storm Warnings are issued by the National Weather Service for the west coast of Florida. Life-threatening storm surge of 5-10 feet is possible. In addition, areas along the central west coast of Florida could experience hurricane-force winds and 10-15"+ of rainfall. This could lead to significant flash flooding.
Ian becomes a tropical depression early Saturday morning and eventually a remnant low by Sunday. Model guidance shows the tropical moisture invading Maryland late Saturday night through early next week! There is still plenty of uncertainty in terms of the exact placement and timing of the tropical moisture. The track of Ian will determine how much rainfall we will see AND how strong the storms could potentially be.
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