Our fifth named storm of the season developed yesterday in the Atlantic basin! Tropical Storm Erin now has sustained maximum winds of 45 mph and is quickly traveling in the westward direction over the central Atlantic. It is expected to intensify to a hurricane later this week and could potentially reach major hurricane status (category 3 or higher) this weekend.
Spaghetti forecast models give you a visual sense of the projected path a storm could take. Most of the guidance keeps it just north of the Caribbean and on a westerly route throughout the week and into the weekend.
As of right now, long-range model guidance has Erin taking on a more parallel path to Florida next week and eventually a north-northeasterly track, which could steer the storm away from the eastern seaboard. Obviously a lot could change over the next several days, as it is too early to predict Erin's direct impact. Maryland's Most Accurate weather team will continue to track Erin and the rest of the tropics!
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