Once again another cold shot and another storm not for Maryland. Yes some areas of the Delmarva will see snow but yet again it's a miss for both the Baltimore and Washington DC metros. We have the cold air but just can't seem to get any snow as the storm track sits along the Gulf Coast states. Strong high pressure coming out of the northern Plains delivers the cold but also acts as a double edge sword for snow lovers keeping that storm track pinned south. This is what looks to happen with our event Thursday into Friday. Snow for the Carolinas and Virginia Tidewater with a quick brush of snowy dust on the extreme lower Eastern Shore.
Both of our American models and the European have come into an agreement on this with accumulating snow from Charlotte to Raleigh and Over to Norfolk and Ocean City. For that reason Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the afternoon/evening time-frame as the wintry mess moves in. Even with those winter storm alerts issued there is still some uncertainty in overall snow amounts across these area.
A strong "boom" or "bust" potential remains thanks to warm air in the upper levels. This creates havoc with rain initially to start before a change to snow. On top of this surface temperatures are well above freezing which can affect snow totals as well. Overall general thinking is 1-4" around Raleigh and Charlotte with locally heavier amounts toward the Outer Banks and Norfolk. A little shift in overall energy placement with the storm system and enhanced banding could alter these totals hence that uncertainty once again.
As a whole though here in Baltimore and throughout the I-95 corridor it's been our luck of the draw with limited snowfall. By Friday morning the beaches of North Carolina and Virginia could have more snow than us here in Baltimore. Currently we are in 12th place when it comes to warmest Winter's on record and with 29 days to go until Spring the hope for us snow lovers is the month of March.
The 8-14 day trend continues to show a shift to colder temperatures. If this is to verify it would be similar to last year and the year before where we picked up the bulk of our winter season snowfall. On average we usually get 1.9' of snow in Baltimore so don't count it out yet. April is also on the table with an average of a trace to start the month. April Fool's snow anyone we are just 41 days away. Stay tuned!!