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The anticipated rise in people getting sick after the holidays

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Posted at 9:16 PM, Jan 05, 2024
and last updated 2024-01-06 21:47:11-05

BALTIMORE — Does it seem like a lot more people you know are getting sick lately?

According to medical experts, a lot more people out for the count, on the couch, and we'll likely see more. We could see a weeks-long, post-holiday rise in people getting sick.

So much throughout history has been researched and studied in East Baltimore; lately, at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, microbiology professor Dr. Andy Pekosz and his colleagues are researching the flu and COVID, which he says many more people are likely to get.

"It’s difficult to predict how long the season lasts," Pekosz explained, "but usually, it lasts about 4-6 weeks after you start to see these surges in cases. So, we fully expect the rest of January into February that we’ll have a high amount of activity.”

There's already enough COVID in the hospitals to raise an eyebrow, according to data from the Maryland Dept. of Health. Hospitals in Baltimore City, and Baltimore, Howard, Carroll, and Anne Arundel Counties are all in that yellow, 'medium' COVID hospital admissions category per 100k:

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COVID Hospitalizations per 100,000 as of 1/2/24

About 200 more people had COVID in the hospital on Jan 2., 2024 than on December 2, 2023, the data said.

"We're hoping that the case numbers will stay relatively controlled. It looks like the increases are happening, we’re not seeing a massive increase in hospitalizations yet, but we’re still at the early stages of this surge, so hospitalizations usually come a few days or a week after the case numbers start to rise," Pekosz added.

Thankfully, RSV, is starting to drop, but it's still at a relatively high level.

Some hospitals across the country are going back to requiring masking, and Pekosz said that's something medical institutions should consider here.

"It just makes sense for those institutions to put those extra precautions in place," Pekosz added, "To make sure that they’re limiting the spread of these viruses, especially at a time like now, when there’s so much of these cases occurring across the community."

If there's any silver lining, it's that flu and COVID vaccines are working against the viruses.

"We're looking now at the influenza viruses that are circulating here in the community. If there’s any good news about this surge - it’s that the viruses look very closely related to the vaccines that we're using," said Pekosz.

Testing, Pekosz said, is important for folks in high-risk groups - at the first sign of symptoms, it's vital to get one. If you feel sick, stay home.