What We're Tracking: Trouble for Maryland?

Posted at 6:10 PM, Sep 30, 2015
and last updated 2015-09-30 18:10:30-04


The tropics are picking up again with multiple waves in the Atlantic, along with a system churning near the Bahamas. We've been monitoring the potential for a storm to develop near the coast for some time now, which is common for El Nino Hurricane Seasons.

At this point all Mid-Atlantic eyes need to be on Hurricane Joaquin. This storm will be a threat to Maryland and the East Coast in the coming days. Several forecast trends and Ensembles(Multiple Forecast Model Solutions), bring this storm inland near the Delmarva Peninsula. These same models have the storm at hurricane strength - anywhere from a category 1-3 hurricane during landfall.

Even if this storm stays off the coast, it will be close enough to produce a lot of wind and rain. It may also join with a "Nor'easter like system - increasing our winds and flood potential. Several models are showing 5" of rain or more by this weekend. Since our ground is already saturated in most areas,  this is a classic recipe for flooding.

The European Model's - Fork in the Road

One glimpse of hope belongs to the Euro Forecast Model, which takes the hurricane out to sea. This model suggests the high pressure in place over the northern Atlantic will weaken and drift east, allowing a low pressure trough to form and take Joaquin out to sea. We'll see how this solution plays out in the coming days. The Euro has earned respect among meteorologist and is rarely "bet" against - but since its been wrong before, it's seen as the outlier.

We'll continue to track the activity in the coming days, and post updates here.