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Well is Winter over already and the February Thaw

Snow lovers hopes are dashed with 60 degree..
Posted: 6:36 PM, Jan 29, 2020
Updated: 2020-01-29 18:36:22-05
January 29, 2020 High Temps

Another day of at or above average temperatures for much of Central Maryland. Highs climbed backed into the mid to upper 40s after lows in the upper 30s this morning. The sunshine also returned to much of the area after two relatively cloudy days. Unfortunately the clouds will return to the area overnight with a weak storm system rolling by to our south.

NAM 3KM 18z Run Hitting On Flurries Thursday AM.

A snow flurry or quick sprinkle cannot be ruled out Thursday but for the most part we are looking at partly to mostly cloudy skies. Snow will be confined to the mountains of Maryland, West Virginia, and southern/central Virginia early Thursday with minor accumulation below 1" expected. This storm system will bring in some colder air as well as additional cloud cover throughout the day Thursday with continued weather conditions expected heading into later this week.

A snow flurry or quick sprinkle cannot be ruled out Thursday but for the most part we are looking at partly to mostly cloudy skies. Snow will be confined to the mountains of Maryland, West Virginia, and southern/central Virginia early Thursday with minor accumulation below 1" expected. This storm system will bring in some colder air as well as additional cloud cover throughout the day Thursday with continued weather conditions expected heading into later this week.

The weekend is where things get a little tricky. A coastal low gets going off of Georgia late Friday night dragging in both Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic moisture. At the same time and upper level low is dropping through the Upper Midwest and Ohio River Valley. The two pieces of energy though don't line up. Our coastal low at the surface is too quick in it's formation and too far off the coast for the diving upper level low to catch up. The upper level low is also delayed and the overall placement is south of the surface low as it drops across Saturday into Sunday. With all that said the conclusion from all model suites except the GFS is a miss.

Most of the models do keep a quick brush by from the surface low late Friday into Saturday while the upper level low swings in from the west late Saturday into Sunday morning. Any wintry precipitation will be confined north and west of Baltimore as well as over the Western Maryland mountains. Here in Baltimore a chilly rain will fall with precipitation amounts staying below an inch. The split in energy may also aid in drier conditions since we will be caught in between the systems with no direct moisture source. All precipitation looks to exit Sunday morning with temperatures sitting steady and even slowly rising as winds kick up out of the west gusting over 25 mph.

Southerly to southwesterly flow punches in early next week as a ridge builds in. This will lead to the February Thaw with many locations popping 60 degrees. Long range trends continue to pick up on this warmth and try to continue it at least through the middle of the month. Rain returns though with a powerful cold front Wednesday but even behind the front temperatures look to remain at or above average.

A sad state of affairs for us snow lovers as all of our teleconnections which help determine long range cold or warm pushes in the forecast for the east point to the same thing. Limited snowfall, more rain, and above average temperatures remain for now but I guess we can dream for one last gasp of Winter before time is up. Just 51 days to go and counting til Spring!! Give us some love Groundhog and get us to 20 no shadow predictions.