Currently NOAA (National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration) is not forecasting any widespread below normal temperatures, but our region has equal chances in seeing either above or below normal temps across the Winter season ahead.
Precipitation trends on the other hand look to remain wetter than normal. The probability of this occurring remains greater than 33% and currently goes along with what we have been experiencing most of this year so far.
A weak El Nino is anticipated this year and looks to contribute to an active pattern ahead. If we get into a moderate or even stronger El Nino greater ramifications could be influenced on the season ahead.
Typically El Nino in Maryland means that we are wetter/snowier as the storm track digs into the southern United States and coastal Northeast.With that said the question on many minds is too if we could see the big snow. Of course you need the active jet but a number of other features need to come along for a big snow to happen.
Both the polar and subtropical jet streams are in play here. The subtropical jet brings the moisture while the polar jet brings the cold. Where these two phase together can create instability and allow winter lows to rapidly intensify hence big snow.
Typically in Maryland, but not always, above average snowy winters are during El Nino years.
Besides the jetstream patterns other factors such as the oscillations come into play. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), the AO (Arctic Oscillation), PDO (Pacific Decaedal Oscillation), and the strength of the polar vortex which is driven by Siberian snow-pack come into play. A change in one of these or in all of them could easily alter the pattern.
Remember this outlook above is a broad brush view into what will occur this winter season ahead. The WMAR2News WEATHER TEAM will release their finding later on in November as we get closer to the winter season ahead. Stay tuned!!!