Here we go again another weekend threat of severe weather courtesy of a stalled frontal boundary. This boundary will be parked over the area for much of Saturday before continuing north as a warm front Saturday evening into Sunday morning. This boundary will not only give us a chance at severe weather but a return to temperatures near 85-90 degrees.
The potential for Saturday's severe storms are somewhat dependent though on how much sunshine we can see during the first half of the day after the morning clouds clear. Of course the more sunshine means more storm fuel and a higher threat for severe storms come Saturday afternoon. Less sunshine early though could lower the threat and help us avoid widespread activity.
As of now the Storm Prediction has us in a "Slight Risk" for severe weather. One a scale of 1 to 5 we are running about a 2 which simply means that we have a low end risk for severe weather with gusty winds and small hail as the predominant threats.
Storms should begin developing after 3pm and continue through at least 8-9pm in the evening. The best chance for some isolated strong to severe storms would be between the 4-7pm since this will be when most of the storm fuel will be available for the taking. The best location though seems to be in the lower southern shore of the state
Winds at the surface will be coming in from the east and southeast, while the wind higher up comes in from the southwest. This leads to some rotation in the atmosphere above causing the potential for at least an isolated chance of a tornado. The best chance for this to happen looks to be over the Lower Eastern Shore and down into the Virginia Tidewater We don't see this being an outbreak, but still something that is worth attention.
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