LATEST UPDATE ON HURRICANE JOAQUIN: click here
No matter where Joaquin ends up, portions of the East Coast will feel the effects from the evolving large scale weather pattern, such as flooding, heavy rainfall, gusty winds, high surf, beach erosion.
Hurricane Hunters flew into Joaquin this morning when it was a tropical storm to investigate and came out with the following information:
Joaquin is a category 1 hurricane with winds sustained at 75 mph, it was moving slowly to the southwest at 6 mph and the minimum central pressure was estimated at 971 mb.
This is a difficult forecast, so Marylanders need to pay close attention right into the beginning of next week.
There are many factors that go into making the correct call for this particular forecast. There will be a cold front near the East Coast, high pressure over the North Atlantic and a strong area of low pressure across the southeast. The behavior of all of these features and how they interact with Joaquin is what makes the forecast a bit difficult.
The development and path of Joaquin depends heavily on the position of all the previously mentioned players. Forecast models are not in total agreement of where Joaquin is headed. The GFS (American) model has Joaquin turning northwest and running right into Virginia and Maryland this weekend. the ECMWF (European) model has Joaquin staying well off to the east away from the U.S. East Coast.
At this point, it is too soon and the uncertainty is too high to determine the exact impacts from Joaquin for Maryland.
With that said, no matter where Joaquin ends up, portions of the East Coast will feel the affects from the evolving large scale weather pattern, such as flooding, heavy rainfall, gusty winds, high surf, beach erosion.