Unfortunately snow lovers dreams of a White Christmas in Baltimore continue to be a letdown. Now for those living in Western Maryland from Frostburg to Deep Creek Lake it's a bit of a different story with a fresh 2-4" of snow in the forecast by Christmas Eve (2018) morning.
It's already been an unusual winter for nearly everyone in the United States. In the Mid-Atlantic many including right here in Baltimore saw snow in November. Snowpack in the month of November for the Lower 48 was above average by over 31%. December though has brought as warming trend cutting that number down to 21% leaving the odds for a "White Christmas" pretty low. Most of the snow coverage is confined to usual suspect areas of the northern tier near Canada and the Rockies/northern Appalachian Mountains.
According to historical records for Baltimore, measurable snowfall has only occurred 6% of the time on Christmas Day. In addition, Baltimore only has a 13% chance of having snow on the ground on December 25th. Those odds go up to 30%+ the farther west you go in such places as Deep Creek/Oakland (Garrett County, Maryland) based on the aspects of elevation and proximity to moisture for upslope coming off the Great Lakes.
The last time Baltimore saw a "White Christmas" was in 2002 where 1-2" of snow was recorded on the ground Christmas morning. This meets the definition of a "White Christmas" with 1" of snow on the ground Christmas morning.
Prior to 2002 we had a "Snowless" December in 2001 so this shows you how hard the snow is to come by in our area especially early in the Winter season.
Temperature wise Baltimore typically averages a high temp around 43 and a low temp of 26. The warmest Christmas came in 1964 with a high of 72 degrees and the coldest came in 1983 with a high of 0 degrees.
2018 will feature no snow and temperatures right around the average. Highs will be right at 42 degrees with tons of sunshine and lows will be in the 20s with high pressure overhead.
Long range guidance suggests continued warming after the holiday with more rain instead of snow. Highs by Friday around 60 degrees.
So the only hope for snow is a 3 hour trip west and over the mountains to Maryland's hidden gem Deep Creek Lake. For now snow lovers are left to look into the rear view mirror for hope come 2019 as the pattern looks to flip again. Will it be snow well we will just have to wait and see.