From a close call with severe weather this weekend to a few comfortable days and now another severe weather threat. Storms once again look to strike the area Thursday mid afternoon and early evening with damaging winds, large hail, heavy rain, and even the possibility of an isolated tornado.
The storm system continue to strike the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi, giving them another round of deadly tornadoes. Right now a "LEVEL 3 ENHANCED RISK" for severe weather is in place for damaging winds, tornadoes, and flash flooding in those areas with the threat expending over another several days.
Meanwhile here in Baltimore we will see increasing clouds and a few spotty showers Thursday morning before things get worse in the afternoon. A few breaks of sunshine are likely as well as temperatures pushing into the mid 80s making things even more interesting when it comes to our severe weather threat. Two limiting factors though could be the clouds/showers in the morning and the exact timing of the front which will act as the main lifting mechanism for storms.
After lunchtime is when things look to get cooking. Showers and thunderstorms will bubble up from convection earlier in the day off to our north. At the same time a broken line of storms will be rolling out of the mountains of Maryland during the late afternoon rush. This line should arrive to Baltimore around 2-6pm before crossing into the Eastern Shore after that. This is where we could see the worst of the weather when it comes to damaging winds and even the possibility of an isolated tornado.
THREATS & IMPACTS
Our primary concerns look to be damaging winds in excess of 50 mph and large hail. Heavy rain is also possible but flooding does not look to be an issue since storms will be moving by pretty quickly. Models trend the line to come through a little quicker which could increase the threat since the storm energy and wind energy aloft will likely be maximized at this point. Storm coverage though looks spotty in nature with some locations not seeing anything at all. Best chances for severe weather look to be north of Baltimore back into portions of southern/central Pennsylvania.
Besides wind and hail threat the concern for a tornado or two remains on the table. The threat is nonzero based upon the winds aloft and at the surface moving in slightly different directions to create rotation. This is especially true with storms that can get out ahead of the front.
Wind though continues to be the biggest concern since above us at airplane level winds are well over 50-70mph and at the surface gusts look to approach 50mph out ahead and behind the broken line of storms, The same broken line of storms at any point could pull down those 50-70 mph winds to the surface creating spotty instances of tree damage and even some power outages.
Please make sure to have a way to get watches and warnings Thursday. Make sure to have a severe weather safety plan and know where you live on a map so you can get the right information even faster.