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Severe storms Sunday before a cool push into April

Temps near 80 degrees Sunday with long range...
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Posted at 3:47 PM, Mar 28, 2020
and last updated 2020-03-28 15:58:40-04

We continue to play the game of hopscotching fronts around here in Maryland. One day it's nice and the next is nasty. Truly a general weather theme that has been going on for much of March and is no different this weekend (March 28-29th, 2020). Many locations woke up to showers and storms Saturday morning as a warm frontal boundary waivers across the area.

The front provided many local gardens and lawns up to 1" of rain this mornings with leftover drizzle and fog into the afternoon hours. Temperatures also not budging a whole lot with 40s and 50s north of the boundary and near 70 degree readings to the south around Richmond, VA. Once again another nasty day in Maryland.

The front though will slowly lift back to the north overnight with temperatures likely rising by early Sunday morning. As the front comes north more patchy fog is likely before the sunshine breaks through Sunday midday especially in areas south of Baltimore. These locations could touch 80 degrees or better while areas north of I-70 and toward the PA/MD line get stuck in the 60s/70 depending on overall placement of the front. A mix of sun and clouds is guaranteed through mid afternoon before the cold front arrives.

Scattered showers and storms are likely to develop along the boundary but severe weather remains at a minimum with most of the overall energy well off to our north and west into Canada. Timeline right now for storm development looks to be between 2-6pm Sunday. Even with that said some of the storms could pack a punch with wind gusts upwards of 40 mph, an isolated tornado, and vivid lightning concerns. So if you hear the roar while practicing social distancing outdoors it's time to head inside. Storms look to be quick with clearing by late evening into the overnight hours.

BAMS 3K Model Output
BAMS 3K Model Output
Sunday Severe Weather Threat
Sunday Tornado Outlook

Wind will become an issue with gusts of 25-35 mph behind the front going into early next week. Westerly flow will bring us cooler and drier air starting Monday as highs fall back into the mid 60s. Sunny skies will be back on the menu and look to continue into the first half of Tuesday as high pressure moves through.

Clouds will increase late though as another wet weather-maker rolls our way. Most of this storm system will be off to our south with rain Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Temperatures will suffer as a result with highs back into the upper 40s and low to mid 50s midweek. April Fool's cold will continue on as long range 8-14 day trends suggest additional shots of cold air pouring in. Highs Thursday and Friday look to remain in the mid to upper 50s with much of the same for the weekend ahead.

7 Day Forecast
Climate Prediction Center NOAA 8-14 Day Outlook
Negative NAO Cycle

All of this goes back to our negative NAO signal. This signal is a big factor when it comes to cold air pouring down into the eastern half of the country. If your a snow lover of course you would want to see this in Winter not Spring especially for those already planting into the garden. The jetstream looks to remain pushed to our south as a result unloading unseasonably cool conditions at least through mid April before we see another rebound. Besides the chill drier than average conditions look likely in the long range which mean more nice days compared to nasty ones even if you need a sweater. Stay tuned as the "Weather Roller Coaster" remains full steam ahead.