Another round of severe weather unfortunately is on it's way to Central Maryland. This will not be like the event Thursday (May 23, 2019) where we had the EF-1 tornado touchdown in Columbia, Maryland. Activity should be relatively scattered with areas from Baltimore points south seeing most of the action. Storms look to strike the area Sunday afternoon and early evening with damaging winds, large hail, heavy rain, and vivid lightning concerns.
The storm system continues to strike the Southern Plains and northern Ohio River Valley, giving them another round of dangerous weather. Right now a "LEVEL 3 ENHANCED RISK" for severe weather is in place for damaging winds, tornadoes, and flash flooding in those areas with the threat continuing over the next several days.
Meanwhile here in Baltimore we will see increasing clouds and a few spotty storms this evening before things get worse Sunday afternoon as the humidity returns. A few breaks of sunshine are likely as well as temperatures pushing into the low 90s making things even more interesting when it comes to our severe weather threat. Two limiting factors though could be the clouds in the morning and the exact timing of the energy as it comes along the boundary which will remain just to our north Sunday afternoon.
TIMING
After lunchtime Sunday is when things look to get cooking. Showers and thunderstorms will bubble up from convection earlier in the day off to our west. At the same time a broken line of storms will be rolling out of the mountains of Maryland during the late afternoon hours . This line should arrive to Baltimore after 5pm before crossing into the Eastern Shore after that. This is where we could see the worst of the weather when it comes to damaging winds and even some large hail. Timing uncertainties remain though based upon how swiftly that energy to our west comes along the boundary and over the mountains.
THREATS & IMPACTS
Our primary concerns look to be damaging winds in excess of 40 mph and large hail. Heavy rain is also possible but flooding does not look to be an issue since storms will be moving by pretty quickly. Models trend the line to come through a little quicker which could increase the threat since the storm energy and wind energy aloft will likely be maximized at this point. Storm coverage though looks spotty in nature with some locations not seeing anything at all.
Besides wind and hail threat the concern for a tornado or two remains on the table. The threat is nonzero based upon the winds aloft and at the surface moving in slightly different directions to create rotation. This is especially true with storms that are closer to the warm frontal boundary.
Wind though continues to be the biggest concern since above us at airplane level winds are well over 40-50mph and at the surface gusts look to approach 30mph out ahead and behind the main line of storms. The same main line of storms at any point could pull down those 40-50 mph winds to the surface creating spotty instances of tree damage and even some power outages.
Storms are out of here for a decent Memorial Day before big heat returns for the middle of next week.
IMPORTANT
Please make sure to have a way to get watches and warnings Sunday. Make sure to have a severe weather safety plan and know where you live on a map so you can get the right information even faster.
