The threat for severe weather returns once again to Central Maryland for your Tuesday and Wednesday. Multiple rounds of storms are expected as a warm frontal boundary lifts over the area. For that reason the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has placed portions of the area underneath a "LEVEL 2 Slight Risk" for severe while extreme northern Cecil and Harford counties sit in a "Level 3 Enhanced Risk." These risk simply mean that conditions look to be favorable later on for severe weather development. The ORANGE ZONE in particularly on the map is one to keep an eye on since this area will have the best bet to see an isolated tornado or two. Otherwise the primary threats with any of these storms look to be damaging winds, large hail, localized flooding, and vivid lightning concerns.
Two limiting factors though could be the initial round of storms from this morning and current cloud cover that remains in place. If the clouds break like the models are expecting storm energy will build since temps could punch 90 degrees. With added heat and humidity of course you have the perfect breeding ground for storms. The hope is the morning rain and any leftover cloud cover could mitigate the threat especially with the main energy source just to our northwest.
TIMING & IMPACTS
After 1-2pm is when things look to get cooking just to our north with showers and storms. Thunderstorms will bubble up from residual convection and boundaries earlier in the day off to our north and west. This convection will be scattered in nature while at the same time advancing south into the late afternoon and evening hours. The worst of the weather looks to get into northern Maryland after 3-4pm and continue through at least 8pm tonight. There looks to be a sharp cutoff at the city according to model trends based upon that limiting factor of the storms this morning.
Once again the worst of the weather at this point looks to be confined toward northern Baltimore, Harford, Cecil, and Carroll counties. Elevated concerns of course for those over the state line in Pennsylvania that live near York/Lancaster. Places from Baltimore City south and east may see nothing at all!!!
Our primary concerns look to be damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and large hail. Heavy rain is also possible but flooding does not look to be an issue since storms will be moving by pretty quickly. Models trend the line to come through a little quicker which could increase the threat since the storm energy and wind energy aloft will likely be maximized at this point. Storm coverage though looks spotty in nature with some locations not seeing anything at all.
Besides wind and hail threat the concern for a tornado or two remains on the table. The threat is nonzero based upon the winds aloft and at the surface moving in slightly different directions to create rotation. This is especially true with storms that are closer to the warm frontal boundary.
Wind though continues to be the biggest concern since above us at airplane level winds are well over 40-50mph and at the surface gusts look to approach 30mph out ahead and behind the main line of storms. The same main line of storms at any point could pull down those 40-50 mph winds to the surface creating spotty instances of tree damage and even some power outages.
Wednesday brings us another threat of severe weather concerns as the front remains draped over the area. Coverage will be scattered but a little more widespread in the afternoon hours. Hail and wind once again the primary threats. High temperatures near 90 degrees.
Please make sure to have a way to get watches and warnings Sunday. Make sure to have a severe weather safety plan and know where you live on a map so you can get the right information even faster.