Early Easter forecast looks cooler than normal

Warming into the weekend before cooler air..
Cooler Weather Continues Into Easter
Posted at 2:55 PM, Apr 04, 2020

Warmer temperatures may be returning to the forecast this weekend but long range forecast suggest cooler times to come. High temperatures will be back around 60-65 degrees this weekend despite a few extra clouds before pushing 70 early next week. The warm temperatures look to last through Thursday with highs back close to 80 midweek. After this period a steep drop off returns with highs forecast in the 50s and even a chance of snow in the mountains by the weekend.

Wednesday April 8th, Upper Air Temp Trend BAMS Model
Thursday April 9th, Upper Air Temp Trend BAMS Model
Source Pivotal Weather: Canadian GEM Model Next Weekend
Source Pivotal Weather: GFS Model Next Weekend April 10-12th

An up and down jetstream is to blame for the drastic variance in temperature. This up and down pattern of course is driven by larger scale features in the upper levels of the atmosphere from the Greenland blocking high and a series of low pressure systems coming out of Alaska into the Pacific Northwest. Also the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) plays into things with a negative phase currently forecast which means an active but cool weather pattern ahead for the eastern two-thirds of the country.

Source: Climate Prediction Negative NAO = Cool Temps In Maryland
Cold Shot April 10th-12th

Overall we are dry through the beginning of next week before things turn active again. Long range 8-14 day trends are below average for temperatures and above average for precipitation. Precipitation chances increase Tuesday through Thursday of next week but overall rain amounts look relatively low. The pattern doesn't really get energized until the following weekend ahead. Some models even want to spit out snow around the April 10th-12th time-frame. It would not be uncommon with the latest snowfall in Baltimore coming around April 28th.

Climate Prediction Center NOAA 8-14 Day Outlook
Average Last Spring Frost From EPOD-USRA
NOAA Spring Last Freeze Map

Anything goes weather-wise in Maryland this time of year. So far we look to stay seasonable temperature and precipitation wise across the area. If you are planting or working in the garden the next few days don't get to aggressive. Remember we are still waiting on that first frost and freeze which can take out tender plant material. The last frost and freeze usually comes before Mother's Day so be careful when planting. Also when working outdoors allergy sufferers beware as tree pollen remains very high. Limited rain and warming temperatures will keep things blooming and that yellow dust flying through the air. Stay tuned!!!

Pollen Outlook The Next 3 Days From Pollen. Com