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Goucher Poll: Maryland Gubernatorial primaries highly competitive

Posted at 6:08 AM, Jun 28, 2022
and last updated 2022-06-29 09:14:55-04

BALTIMORE — The primary election in Maryland is three weeks away.

A newly released Goucher poll shows just how close the gubernatorial races are.

The poll was conducted June 15-19, and surveyed 403 Maryland Democratic and 414 Republican voters with a +/- 4.9 percent margin of error.

So far, the crowded Democratic field appears to be tight, with a lot of voters still unsure on which way they'll go.

Comptroller Peter Franchot (16 percent) leads author Wes Moore and former DNC Chairman Tom Perez (each with 14 percent) by two points.

Of those Democrats polled, 63 percent said they could change their mind while another 35 percent said they are still undecided on which candidate to vote for. 

Currently state delegate Dan Cox (25 percent), who is backed by former President Donald Trump, tops Governor Larry Hogan's endorsed candidate Kelly Schulz (22 percent) by three points in the Republican Gubernatorial race.

Of those Republicans polled, 47 percent said they could change their mind while another 44 percent are still undecided on which candidate to vote for.

    Democratic voters surveyed were told about Trump's support for Cox and likewise, Hogan's endorsement of Schulz.

    Of those Democratic voters, 84 percent said they would not consider voting for Cox as opposed 49 percent who would not consider voting for Schulz.

    “Given the political demographics of the state, Republican candidates must earn around a quarter of Democratic votes to win statewide office,” says Mileah Kromer, director of the Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics at Goucher College. “Our polling suggests that the Republican primary race is competitive between Cox and Schulz, but that Schulz is in the best position to be competitive against the Democratic nominee in the general election.”

    Then there are the races for State Comptroller and Attorney General.

    Currently Brooke Lierman leads Tim Adams in the Democratic primary for Comptroller by a margin of 28 to 14 percent, with more than half of voters still undecided.

    Sitting Harford County Executive Barry Glassman is running unopposed on the Republican side.

    For Attorney General Katie Curran O’Malley has a razor thin lead of 30 percent over Anthony Brown's 29 percent, with 35 percent still undecided.

    The poll also asked voters their feelings on the current state of affairs in Maryland.

    For these questions, 501 Maryland Democratic and 508 Maryland Republican voters were surveyed, with an error margin of +/- 4.4 percent.

    It found that 36 percent of Democrats think the state is on the wrong track, compared to 63 percent of Republicans.

    As for the current economic situation in the state, 41 percent of Democrats held a mostly negative view compared to 74 percent of Republicans.

    Democratic voters listed their top five issues as inflation (72 percent), environmental issues and climate change (71 percent), crime and public safety (69 percent), the cost of gasoline (69 percent), and lack of affordable housing (69 percent).

    For Republicans it was the cost of gasoline (90 percent), Inflation (90 percent), Crime and public safety (83 percent), the quality of K-12 public schools (62 percent), and the state tax rate or amount of state taxes (61 percent).

    As his two terms in office come to a close, the poll found that Governor Larry Hogan holds strong support among both Democrats (64 percent favorable) and Republicans (67 percent favorable).

    Maryland GOP voters however are not as committed when it comes to giving Hogan their vote in a potential future presidential run.

    Of those Republicans polled, 45 percent say they would not consider voting for Hogan, 39 percent said they would consider voting for him, and 11 percent say that “it depends.”

    You can read the rest of the poll results by clicking here.